Climate Change Hysteria
You will have noticed in the last two weeks an increased amount of headline news about climate change. The media who like a good story and are never a group to let the facts (or lack of them) get in the way of a good story have given this item quite a thrashing lately.
On April 6th in Brussels the bureaucrats launched the final version of this report. This was not a new report but just a firmed up (and politically manipulated) version of what they previously released on February 2nd and revised on February 5th. Now after further postulation and manoeuvring they release the final version; for now that is, watch this space.
So while the media have had a beat up on this, what the report says in essence has not changed from February 2007 or the third report which was published in 2001. All that has happened is that they feel more sure now about their conclusions and forecasts.
Now I have said this before and I will say it many more times –“these are the people who predicated bad weather for Auckland over Easter and we got glorious weather and they are forecasting conditions for 2030 and beyond! “
And here is the evidence, provided because some people think I make this stuff up.
Forecasters predict mixed Easter weather 1:00PM Wednesday April 04, 2007
Good Friday and Saturday will be damp for many, followed by clearing conditions on Sunday and Monday, according to MetService forecaster Bob McDavitt.
A trough is likely to bring heavy downpours to central and northern parts of the North Island tomorrow, followed by a cold front with some rain and a southerly wind change working its way up the South Island on Good Friday....
And what happened –
Holiday weekend defies grim forecast 12:00PM Tuesday April 10, 2007
North Islanders return to work today after basking in unexpectedly warm, sunny conditions for most of Easter.
This is despite the MetService predicting that for the most part it would be a cold and wet weekend......
Mr McDavitt last night defended the outlook, which he said was national. Auckland and outlying areas were always expected to be fine on Saturday and Sunday.
He didn't think people were misled. "I think I underlined it, we're not forecasting any severe weather for Easter. And we said it was going to clear up and I think it happened pretty well exactly."
He said the only thing that wasn't right was that the rainfall on Saturday was only about a millimetre - much less than predicted.
And then this morning in the NZ Herald we have this headline –
Ratepayers face big bills to fight climate change
New Zealand's ecosystems and coastal communities face threats from dramatic changes to the world's climate - and ratepayers face a big burden in paying to combat them.
Niwa scientist Jim Salinger warns the effects will be substantial if nothing is done.
Dr Salinger was the lead author of the Australia and New Zealand chapter in the report of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Now who saw this coming –this is why my changed banner for Ecorant has a money bag with a dollar sign on it. Do you think that politicians in Wellington or Brussels are going to pay for this? Of course they will not.
Now this is the same Dr Salinger who has had a public spat with Dr Augie Auer (actually professor to give him his full title), former TV3 weather forecaster etc
Now here is a press release from the above mentioned NIWA
IPCC identifies climate change impacts & vulnerability for New Zealand
Water security, natural ecosystems, and coastal communities are the three sectors most vulnerable to climate change in New Zealand, according to an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report finalised in Brussels last Friday.
Changes already observed since 1950 include:
- A warming in mean temperature for New Zealand of 0.4 °C;
- A decrease in cold nights and frosts by 10–20 days per year;
- Sea level rise of about 70 mm;
- Loss of at least a quarter of alpine ice mass;
- Increased seed production in beech forest.
I mean the sea level has gone up 70mm (2.75 inches for the oldies like me) in 57 years. Wow! At this rate I could have a beachfront property in say 3059.
Last night on Campbell Live on TV3 we had two people debating this; one was Jeanette Fitzsimmons esteemed co-leader of the Green party and part time investor in wind farms and Brian Leyland of the Climate Science Coalition.
Here is a link to a recent comment on Climate Change by David Parker of the Climate Science Coalition.
Dr Vincent Gray, a Wellington climate scientist, who has been a member of the IPCC expert reviewers panel since the inaugural assessment says it comes as no surprise that the independent summary finds a difference between temperatures in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.
“NASA temperature records show that there is hardly any recent temperature increase over the oceans, but a greater increase over the larger land masses, mainly in the Northern Hemisphere. The reason for the North/South difference is due to the fact that all the major land masses are in the North, and that they generate and radiate heat and extra radiative heat which is even detectable in the lower atmosphere.
“New Zealand is a very small land surrounded by sea, so is ‘below average’”, says Dr Gray. He says there is no evidence that human greenhouse gas emissions are harming the climate, or are likely to do so in the future.
“The new IPCC report confirms that global warming blamed on carbon emissions was only 0.4ºC over the past 56 years. It is impossible to believe that this small amount could be responsible for all the climate disasters listed in the report.
“But more importantly it did not happen here. There was negligible warming in New Zealand over the past 50 years, and 2006 was 0.7ºC below the figure for 2005. The record for Christchurch shows no warming since 1910, with a maximum in 1917.
“The report also says that global warming only happened between 1976 and 1998, that is, 20 of the 56 years since 1950. From 1950 to 1976 there was none. Since 1998 there has been no warming, worldwide. What this indicates is that global warming is over; certainly as far as New Zealand is concerned,” said Dr Gray.
Bryan Leyland, an Auckland energy consultant who is chair of the coalition's economic panel, comments: "The IPCC report makes no mention of the effect that sunspot related phenomena have on our weather and climate. How can these supposedly responsible and objective climate scientists ignore the huge amount of research that shows a very strong correlation between sun-related effects and the climate? It fully explains recent warming and cooling and is backed up by records going back thousands of years.